Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 1.406080 1.475723 1.547762 1.628015 1.715127 1.807052 1.911687
2025-10-26 1.297788 1.396178 1.502117 1.625313 1.765477 1.920993 2.108020
2025-11-02 1.225387 1.340186 1.467181 1.619326 1.798327 2.004402 2.262839
2025-11-09 1.160920 1.285507 1.426191 1.598661 1.807025 2.054176 2.375124
2025-11-16 1.107332 1.238655 1.389476 1.577970 1.810887 2.094415 2.474187
2025-11-23 1.071878 1.210243 1.371664 1.577093 1.836460 2.160237 2.607471
2025-11-30 1.046425 1.191827 1.363973 1.586850 1.874143 2.241742 2.765402
2025-12-07 1.010252 1.158435 1.335901 1.568808 1.874055 2.272540 2.854888
2025-12-14 0.973058 1.122101 1.302324 1.541584 1.859636 2.282113 2.913567
2025-12-21 0.943857 1.094435 1.278242 1.525042 1.857790 2.307601 2.995588
2025-12-28 0.930245 1.085577 1.277287 1.538161 1.895853 2.389708 3.166743
2026-01-04 0.913773 1.072354 1.269979 1.542113 1.920926 2.454099 3.315308
2026-01-11 0.900786 1.063550 1.268538 1.554505 1.959297 2.541483 3.510570
2026-01-18 0.882089 1.046757 1.255978 1.551072 1.974790 2.595686 3.656962
2026-01-25 0.863808 1.029835 1.242505 1.545532 1.986500 2.644225 3.797585
2026-02-01 0.841402 1.006804 1.220038 1.526345 1.976897 2.658649 3.879626
2026-02-08 0.820223 0.984791 1.198216 1.507123 1.966102 2.670125 3.956798
2026-02-15 0.806963 0.972886 1.189644 1.506308 1.982736 2.726115 4.120245
2026-02-22 0.797963 0.966360 1.188104 1.515373 2.014612 2.808611 4.342141
2026-03-01 0.780357 0.947779 1.169376 1.498608 2.005419 2.821743 4.429996
2026-03-08 0.760583 0.925821 1.145392 1.473294 1.981629 2.808572 4.463562
2026-03-15 0.745025 0.909253 1.128498 1.457903 1.972856 2.820551 4.549623
2026-03-22 0.739371 0.906035 1.130156 1.470109 2.008638 2.912121 4.812873